The global cotton market is facing a potential surplus, with the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) this month projecting a 7% increase in world cotton lint production to 25.8 million tonnes for the 2024/25 season. This growth outpaces the expected 2% rise in consumption to 25.5 million tonnes, pointing to a bearish market outlook.
Adding to the pressure, global cotton trade has been revised down to 9.45 million tonnes - driven largely by a decline in import demand from China. While markets such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Turkey, India, and Vietnam are expected to show modest increases in imports, these are unlikely to offset China’s downturn.
While a bearish market can bring challenges, it also presents opportunities. Brands and manufacturers may benefit from lower raw cotton costs, potentially improving margins. It’s also a good time to reinforce sourcing commitments to trusted regions like Australia, where quality, sustainability, and traceability remain key differentiators in a challenging global market.
Source: ICAC
May 2025